Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.519270 24.690811 27.124182 30.084347 33.632374 37.808218 43.189175
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.258744 22.050584 25.431046 29.935860 35.968911 44.084823 56.476928
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.192997 20.311486 24.311751 30.042248 38.481386 51.357448 74.949904
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.580592 18.829442 23.179252 29.771605 40.276260 58.239535 98.005568
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.333697 17.629034 22.192106 29.433296 41.782280 65.266623 128.961565
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.360510 16.669870 21.382339 29.161687 43.262655 72.982954 174.404567
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.580143 15.889285 20.716382 28.968453 44.792854 81.731531 247.426818
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.805844 15.041115 19.842596 28.263680 45.116883 87.848549 338.861171
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.553980 14.929852 20.084647 29.525448 49.897928 110.444561 857.082420
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.029559 14.362864 19.533397 29.238312 51.135113 123.281376 2231.884609
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.634895 13.962701 19.212060 29.331184 53.334693 143.012529 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.311104 13.647317 18.998536 29.596870 56.096806 170.624029 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.988416 13.317789 18.740521 29.755835 58.743418 205.410591 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.616737 12.887953 18.273433 29.411774 59.843810 234.884393 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.329392 12.577048 17.990913 29.428398 62.136118 285.976940 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.022014 12.216234 17.590911 29.129731 63.321164 335.856464 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.732975 11.870654 17.193866 28.787591 64.277438 394.948376 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.474977 11.563777 16.846823 28.519025 65.454573 477.442107 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.245224 11.293030 16.548620 28.329911 66.917239 600.959908 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.971210 10.936450 16.068586 27.649641 66.193568 663.560098 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.936203 10.980480 16.346466 28.864315 74.139228 1653.166997 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.735408 10.732576 16.047786 28.587637 75.293094 2648.974200 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.585634 10.566033 15.896990 28.676938 78.358317 8818.864412 NaN